Vicenza Virtus 1–1 Monza: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vicenza Virtus

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Monza

M. Ierardi 73'

L. Mazzitelli 34'

10/27/2021

Serie B · Round 10Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vicenza Virtus32%

×Draw28%

Monza41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vicenza VirtusExpected goals in this matchMonza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.29

Vicenza Virtus

1.10

Monza

1.29

Monza creates 17% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 61 away

1.11

creates per match

1.31

1.27

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.11

Monza

1.31

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.27

Monza

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Monza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Monza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw

59%

Vicenza Virtus or Monza

72%

Draw or Monza

68%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

12%

Monza wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

67%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

30%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

10%

Monza 1+ goals

72%

Monza 2+ goals

37%

Monza 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

44%

Monza (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Monza away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.11 + Monza defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Monza attack 1.31 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more

32%

level

28%

Monza scores more

41%

Monza at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Monza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

G. Paletta

Monza · D

7.7

Match Events

10'

Pedro Pereira

16'

Davide Diaw

34'

L. Mazzitelli

48'

M. Brescianini← L. Mazzitelli

57'

Mario Ierardi

58'

N. Dalmonte← S. Longo

58'

A. Di Pardo← M. Bruscagin

69'

F. Proia← L. Zonta

73'

M. Ierardi↳ M. Calderoni

83'

A. Colpani← M. DAlessandro

83'

C. Gytkjær← S. Vignato

85'

R. Meggiorini← D. Diaw

85'

L. Crecco← M. Calderoni

90+3'

Riccardo Meggiorini

90'

M. Sampirisi← M. Brescianini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VicenzaMonza

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots8

3Corners4

22Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots8

5On Target2

4Off Target3

3Blocked3

4Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

357Total Passes562

283Accurate Passes476

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

22Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

Serie B: Vicenza Virtus 1–1 Monza

Vicenza Virtus and Monza drew 1-1 in Serie B on October 27, 2021.

Goals: L. Mazzitelli (34'), M. Ierardi (73').

Monza controlled possession (61%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Ferrara.

Vicenza Virtus vs Monza — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Vicenza Virtus 1–1 Monza