Vicenza Virtus 0–2 Frosinone: Result & Stats

Vicenza Virtus

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Frosinone

R. Maiello 80' (pen)

C. Ciano 48'

8/28/2021

Serie B · Round 2Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vicenza Virtus33%

×Draw28%

Frosinone39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vicenza VirtusExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.23

Vicenza Virtus

1.10

Frosinone

1.23

Frosinone creates 12% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 116 away

1.11

creates per match

1.20

1.27

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.11

Frosinone

1.20

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.27

Frosinone

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Frosinone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw

61%

Vicenza Virtus or Frosinone

72%

Draw or Frosinone

67%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

13%

Frosinone wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

67%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

30%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

10%

Frosinone 1+ goals

71%

Frosinone 2+ goals

35%

Frosinone 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

46%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.09 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.11 + Frosinone defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Frosinone attack 1.20 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more

33%

level

28%

Frosinone scores more

39%

Frosinone at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

F. Gatti

Frosinone · D

7.7

Match Events

10'

M. Bruscagin← M. Calderoni

13'

23'

26'

48'

58'

M. Ierardi← A. Di Pardo

59'

S. Giacomelli← L. Zonta

59'

S. Pontisso← L. Rigoni

70'

Federico Proia

72'

Samuele Longo

72'

S. Longo← D. Lanzafame

76'

A. Tribuzzi← C. Ciano

77'

G. Charpentier← A. Zerbin

80'

R. MaielloPenalty

82'

Davide Diaw

89'

H. Haoudi← L. Garritano

89'

A. Satariano← L. Canotto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VicenzaFrosinone

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots21

3Corners13

17Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots21

1On Target5

7Off Target8

2Blocked8

2Inside Box13

8Outside Box8

Passing

54%Possession46%

383Total Passes325

292Accurate Passes220

76%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Serie B: Vicenza Virtus 0–2 Frosinone

Frosinone beat Vicenza Virtus 2-0 in Serie B on August 28, 2021.

Goals: C. Ciano (48'), R. Maiello (80' pen).

Vicenza Virtus controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 21.

The match was played at Stadio Romeo Menti in Vicenza.

Vicenza Virtus vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Vicenza Virtus 0–2 Frosinone