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Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Vicenza Virtus
Vicenza Virtus
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Brescia
Brescia
5/4/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 36Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vicenza Virtus36%
×Draw27%
Brescia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vicenza Virtus
1.20
Brescia
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 116 away

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus
1.11
Brescia
1.18

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus
1.27
Brescia
1.28

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw
63%
Vicenza Virtus or Brescia
73%
Draw or Brescia
64%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+
15%
Brescia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals
70%
Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals
34%
Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals
12%
Brescia 1+ goals
71%
Brescia 2+ goals
35%
Brescia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)
49%
Brescia (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.28 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.11 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Brescia attack 1.18 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more
36%
level
27%
Brescia scores more
37%

Brescia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Vicenza Virtus 0–3 Brescia

Brescia beat Vicenza Virtus 3-0 in Serie B on May 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Romeo Menti in Vicenza.