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Vicenza Virtus vs Benevento — Serie B 2018

Vicenza Virtus
Vicenza Virtus
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Benevento
Benevento
11/26/2016Serie BSerie B · Round 16Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vicenza Virtus31%
×Draw28%
Benevento41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vicenza Virtus
1.08
Benevento
1.27

Benevento creates 18% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 79 away

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus
1.10
Benevento
1.24

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus
1.29
Benevento
1.05

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par
Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Benevento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw
59%
Vicenza Virtus or Benevento
72%
Draw or Benevento
69%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+
12%
Benevento wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals
66%
Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals
29%
Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals
10%
Benevento 1+ goals
72%
Benevento 2+ goals
36%
Benevento 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)
44%
Benevento (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.10 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Benevento attack 1.24 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more
31%
level
28%
Benevento scores more
41%

Benevento at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Walter López
42'
Nicola Bellomo
46'
A. De Falco← N. Jakimovski
56'
Fabio Ceravolo
62'
N. Siega← F. Orlando
66'
Stefano Giacomelli
71'
C. Galano← S. Giacomelli
71'
G. Puşcaş← F. Ceravolo
77'
Francesco Urso
83'
I. Cernigoi← F. Raicevic
90'
M. Camporese← D. Buzzegoli

Possession

52%Vicenza

Shots

12Vicenza

Statistics

VicenzaBenevento
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots8
3Corners3
7Fouls21
Shots
12Total Shots8
2On Target2
10Off Target6
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls21
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Serie B: Vicenza Virtus 0–0 Benevento

Vicenza Virtus and Benevento drew 0-0 in Serie B on November 26, 2016.

Vicenza Virtus controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Romeo Menti in Vicenza.