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Vicenza U19 vs Parma U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Vicenza U19
Vicenza U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Parma U19
Parma U19
3/15/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 23Campo Sportivo Socche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Vicenza U1929%
×Draw23%
Parma U1948%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vicenza U19
1.36
Parma U19
1.82

Parma U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 70 away

creates per match

Vicenza U19
1.69
Parma U19
2.00

allows per match

Vicenza U19
1.64
Parma U19
1.03

finishing

Vicenza U19+0.00on par
Parma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza U19 ↓

Parma U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vicenza U19 or draw
52%
Vicenza U19 or Parma U19
77%
Draw or Parma U19
71%

Winning margin

Vicenza U19 wins by 2+
13%
Parma U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Vicenza U19 1+ goals
74%
Vicenza U19 2+ goals
39%
Vicenza U19 3+ goals
16%
Parma U19 1+ goals
84%
Parma U19 2+ goals
54%
Parma U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Vicenza U19 (draw refunded)
37%
Parma U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza U19 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

Parma U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza U19 attack 1.69 + Parma U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.36

Parma U19 attack 2.00 + Vicenza U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vicenza U19 scores more
29%
level
23%
Parma U19 scores more
48%

Parma U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Parma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vicenza U19 vs Parma U19

Vicenza U19 and Parma U19 drew 2-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Socche in Isola Vicentina.