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Viborg vs FC Copenhagen — Superliga 2018

Viborg
Viborg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
11/25/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 16Energi Viborg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Viborg34%
×Draw24%
FC Copenhagen42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viborg
1.39
FC Copenhagen
1.58

FC Copenhagen creates 14% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 132 away

creates per match

Viborg
1.52
FC Copenhagen
1.83

allows per match

Viborg
1.32
FC Copenhagen
1.26

finishing

Viborg+0.00on par
FC Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viborg ↓

FC Copenhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Viborg or draw
58%
Viborg or FC Copenhagen
76%
Draw or FC Copenhagen
66%

Winning margin

Viborg wins by 2+
15%
FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Viborg 1+ goals
75%
Viborg 2+ goals
40%
Viborg 3+ goals
16%
FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
79%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
47%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Viborg (draw refunded)
44%
FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viborg at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.32 · 81 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.26 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viborg attack 1.52 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

FC Copenhagen attack 1.83 + Viborg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Viborg scores more
34%
level
24%
FC Copenhagen scores more
42%

FC Copenhagen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Viborg 2–1 FC Copenhagen

Viborg beat FC Copenhagen 2-1 in Superliga on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Energi Viborg Arena in Viborg.