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Viborg II vs Holstebro — League #127 2026

Viborg II
Viborg II
FT
2 – 1
Holstebro
Holstebro
10/21/2017League #127League #127 · Round 12Viborg FF´s Anlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Viborg II24%
×Draw22%
Holstebro54%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viborg II
1.23
Holstebro
1.94

Holstebro creates 58% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Viborg II
0.67
Holstebro
2.21

allows per match

Viborg II
1.67
Holstebro
1.79

finishing

Viborg II+0.00on par
Holstebro+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viborg II ↓

Holstebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Viborg II or draw
46%
Viborg II or Holstebro
78%
Draw or Holstebro
76%

Winning margin

Viborg II wins by 2+
10%
Holstebro wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Viborg II 1+ goals
71%
Viborg II 2+ goals
35%
Viborg II 3+ goals
13%
Holstebro 1+ goals
86%
Holstebro 2+ goals
58%
Holstebro 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Viborg II (draw refunded)
31%
Holstebro (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viborg II at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Holstebro away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viborg II attack 0.67 + Holstebro defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.23

Holstebro attack 2.21 + Viborg II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Viborg II scores more
24%
level
22%
Holstebro scores more
54%

Holstebro at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Holstebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viborg II vs Holstebro

Viborg II beat Holstebro 2-1 in League #127 on October 21, 2017.

The match was played at Viborg FF´s Anlæg in Viborg.