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Vianés vs SD Logroñés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Vianés
Vianés
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
12/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 15Estadio Municipal de Viana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vianés13%
×Draw22%
SD Logroñés65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vianés
0.69
SD Logroñés
1.83

SD Logroñés creates 165% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vianés
1.05
SD Logroñés
2.33

allows per match

Vianés
1.32
SD Logroñés
0.33

finishing

Vianés+0.00on par
SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianés ↓

SD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–115%
0–214%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vianés or draw
35%
Vianés or SD Logroñés
78%
Draw or SD Logroñés
87%

Winning margin

Vianés wins by 2+
4%
SD Logroñés wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Vianés 1+ goals
50%
Vianés 2+ goals
15%
Vianés 3+ goals
3%
SD Logroñés 1+ goals
84%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
54%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Vianés (draw refunded)
17%
SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vianés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 109 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vianés attack 1.05 + SD Logroñés defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.69

SD Logroñés attack 2.33 + Vianés defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vianés scores more
13%
level
22%
SD Logroñés scores more
65%

SD Logroñés at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Vianés 0–1 SD Logroñés

SD Logroñés beat Vianés 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Viana in Viana.