Vianés 1–0 San Marcial: Result & Stats

Vianés

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Marcial

11/16/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 11Estadio Municipal de Viana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vianés41%

×Draw26%

San Marcial33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VianésExpected goals in this matchSan Marcial

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.22

Vianés

1.41

San Marcial

1.22

Vianés creates 16% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

1.05

creates per match

1.12

1.32

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Vianés

1.05

San Marcial

1.12

allows per match

Vianés

1.32

San Marcial

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vianés+0.00on par

San Marcial+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianés ↓

San Marcial →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vianés or draw

67%

Vianés or San Marcial

74%

Draw or San Marcial

59%

Winning margin

Vianés wins by 2+

20%

San Marcial wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vianés 1+ goals

76%

Vianés 2+ goals

41%

Vianés 3+ goals

17%

San Marcial 1+ goals

70%

San Marcial 2+ goals

34%

San Marcial 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vianés (draw refunded)

56%

San Marcial (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vianés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 109 matches

San Marcial away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vianés attack 1.05 + San Marcial defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.41

San Marcial attack 1.12 + Vianés defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vianés scores more

41%

level

26%

San Marcial scores more

33%

Vianés at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vianés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff