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Vianés vs Rapid de Murillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Vianés
Vianés
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rapid de Murillo
Rapid de Murillo
5/1/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 30Campo Viana Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vianés65%
×Draw19%
Rapid de Murillo16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vianés
2.26
Rapid de Murillo
1.02

Vianés creates 122% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vianés
1.05
Rapid de Murillo
0.73

allows per match

Vianés
1.32
Rapid de Murillo
3.47

finishing

Vianés+0.00on par
Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianés ↓

Rapid de Murillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vianés or draw
84%
Vianés or Rapid de Murillo
81%
Draw or Rapid de Murillo
35%

Winning margin

Vianés wins by 2+
42%
Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vianés 1+ goals
89%
Vianés 2+ goals
66%
Vianés 3+ goals
39%
Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals
64%
Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals
27%
Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vianés (draw refunded)
80%
Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vianés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 109 matches

Rapid de Murillo away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vianés attack 1.05 + Rapid de Murillo defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.26

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.73 + Vianés defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vianés scores more
65%
level
19%
Rapid de Murillo scores more
16%

Vianés at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Vianés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vianés vs Rapid de Murillo

Vianés beat Rapid de Murillo 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Viana Hierba Artificial in Viana.