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Vianés vs Racing Rioja II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Vianés
Vianés
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Rioja II
Racing Rioja II
9/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 1Campo Viana Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vianés51%
×Draw25%
Racing Rioja II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vianés
1.56
Racing Rioja II
0.96

Vianés creates 63% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vianés
1.05
Racing Rioja II
0.60

allows per match

Vianés
1.32
Racing Rioja II
2.07

finishing

Vianés+0.00on par
Racing Rioja II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianés ↓

Racing Rioja II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vianés or draw
77%
Vianés or Racing Rioja II
75%
Draw or Racing Rioja II
49%

Winning margin

Vianés wins by 2+
27%
Racing Rioja II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vianés 1+ goals
79%
Vianés 2+ goals
46%
Vianés 3+ goals
21%
Racing Rioja II 1+ goals
62%
Racing Rioja II 2+ goals
25%
Racing Rioja II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vianés (draw refunded)
69%
Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vianés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 109 matches

Racing Rioja II away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vianés attack 1.05 + Racing Rioja II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.56

Racing Rioja II attack 0.60 + Vianés defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vianés scores more
51%
level
25%
Racing Rioja II scores more
23%

Vianés at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vianés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vianés vs Racing Rioja II

Vianés beat Racing Rioja II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Viana Hierba Artificial in Viana.