Vianés 1–0 Racing Rioja: Result & Stats

Vianés

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Rioja

3/17/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 25Estadio Municipal de Viana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vianés33%

×Draw26%

Racing Rioja41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VianésExpected goals in this matchRacing Rioja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.40

Vianés

1.24

Racing Rioja

1.40

Racing Rioja creates 13% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 30 away

1.05

creates per match

1.47

1.32

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Vianés

1.05

Racing Rioja

1.47

allows per match

Vianés

1.32

Racing Rioja

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vianés+0.00on par

Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianés ↓

Racing Rioja →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vianés or draw

59%

Vianés or Racing Rioja

74%

Draw or Racing Rioja

67%

Winning margin

Vianés wins by 2+

14%

Racing Rioja wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vianés 1+ goals

71%

Vianés 2+ goals

35%

Vianés 3+ goals

13%

Racing Rioja 1+ goals

75%

Racing Rioja 2+ goals

41%

Racing Rioja 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Vianés (draw refunded)

45%

Racing Rioja (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vianés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 109 matches

Racing Rioja away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vianés attack 1.05 + Racing Rioja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.24

Racing Rioja attack 1.47 + Vianés defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vianés scores more

33%

level

26%

Racing Rioja scores more

41%

Racing Rioja at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Racing Rioja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff