Vianés 1–1 Peña Balsamaiso: Result & Stats

Vianés

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Peña Balsamaiso

11/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 10Estadio Municipal de Viana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Vianés45%

×Draw26%

Peña Balsamaiso29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VianésExpected goals in this matchPeña Balsamaiso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.15

Vianés

1.48

Peña Balsamaiso

1.15

Vianés creates 29% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 66 away

1.05

creates per match

0.97

1.32

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Vianés

1.05

Peña Balsamaiso

0.97

allows per match

Vianés

1.32

Peña Balsamaiso

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vianés+0.00on par

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianés ↓

Peña Balsamaiso →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vianés or draw

71%

Vianés or Peña Balsamaiso

74%

Draw or Peña Balsamaiso

55%

Winning margin

Vianés wins by 2+

22%

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vianés 1+ goals

77%

Vianés 2+ goals

43%

Vianés 3+ goals

19%

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals

68%

Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals

32%

Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vianés (draw refunded)

60%

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vianés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 109 matches

Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vianés attack 1.05 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.48

Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + Vianés defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vianés scores more

45%

level

26%

Peña Balsamaiso scores more

29%

Vianés at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vianés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff