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Peña Balsamaiso vs Vianés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Vianés
Vianés
12/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 15Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Peña Balsamaiso41%
×Draw25%
Vianés34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Balsamaiso
1.52
Vianés
1.35

Peña Balsamaiso creates 13% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 111 away

creates per match

Peña Balsamaiso
1.32
Vianés
1.12

allows per match

Peña Balsamaiso
1.58
Vianés
1.71

finishing

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par
Vianés+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Balsamaiso ↓

Vianés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Peña Balsamaiso or draw
66%
Peña Balsamaiso or Vianés
75%
Draw or Vianés
59%

Winning margin

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
20%
Vianés wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
78%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
45%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
20%
Vianés 1+ goals
74%
Vianés 2+ goals
39%
Vianés 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
55%
Vianés (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Balsamaiso at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

Vianés away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.71 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Balsamaiso attack 1.32 + Vianés defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vianés attack 1.12 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Peña Balsamaiso scores more
41%
level
25%
Vianés scores more
34%

Peña Balsamaiso at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Peña Balsamaiso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peña Balsamaiso vs Vianés

Vianés beat Peña Balsamaiso 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Estrella in Logroño.