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Vianés vs Náxara — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Vianés
Vianés
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Náxara
Náxara
3/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 26Estadio Municipal de Viana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Vianés21%
×Draw22%
Náxara57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vianés
1.06
Náxara
1.91

Náxara creates 80% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 59 away

creates per match

Vianés
1.05
Náxara
2.49

allows per match

Vianés
1.32
Náxara
1.07

finishing

Vianés+0.00on par
Náxara+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianés ↓

Náxara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vianés or draw
43%
Vianés or Náxara
78%
Draw or Náxara
79%

Winning margin

Vianés wins by 2+
8%
Náxara wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Vianés 1+ goals
65%
Vianés 2+ goals
29%
Vianés 3+ goals
9%
Náxara 1+ goals
85%
Náxara 2+ goals
57%
Náxara 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Vianés (draw refunded)
27%
Náxara (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vianés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 109 matches

Náxara away — creates 2.49, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vianés attack 1.05 + Náxara defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Náxara attack 2.49 + Vianés defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vianés scores more
21%
level
22%
Náxara scores more
57%

Náxara at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vianés vs Náxara

Náxara beat Vianés 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Viana in Viana.