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Vianés vs Berceo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Vianés
Vianés
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Berceo
Berceo
12/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 14Estadio Municipal de Viana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Vianés38%
×Draw26%
Berceo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vianés
1.32
Berceo
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 111 away

creates per match

Vianés
1.05
Berceo
1.25

allows per match

Vianés
1.32
Berceo
1.59

finishing

Vianés+0.00on par
Berceo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianés ↓

Berceo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vianés or draw
64%
Vianés or Berceo
74%
Draw or Berceo
62%

Winning margin

Vianés wins by 2+
17%
Berceo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vianés 1+ goals
73%
Vianés 2+ goals
38%
Vianés 3+ goals
15%
Berceo 1+ goals
72%
Berceo 2+ goals
37%
Berceo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vianés (draw refunded)
51%
Berceo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vianés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 109 matches

Berceo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vianés attack 1.05 + Berceo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.32

Berceo attack 1.25 + Vianés defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vianés scores more
38%
level
26%
Berceo scores more
36%

Vianés at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vianés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Vianés 0–2 Berceo

Berceo beat Vianés 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Viana in Viana.