Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vianés vs Autol — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Vianés
Vianés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Autol
Autol
9/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 2Estadio Municipal de Viana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vianés60%
×Draw22%
Autol18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vianés
1.90
Autol
0.91

Vianés creates 109% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 34 away

creates per match

Vianés
1.05
Autol
0.50

allows per match

Vianés
1.32
Autol
2.74

finishing

Vianés+0.00on par
Autol+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianés ↓

Autol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vianés or draw
82%
Vianés or Autol
78%
Draw or Autol
40%

Winning margin

Vianés wins by 2+
36%
Autol wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vianés 1+ goals
85%
Vianés 2+ goals
56%
Vianés 3+ goals
29%
Autol 1+ goals
60%
Autol 2+ goals
23%
Autol 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vianés (draw refunded)
77%
Autol (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vianés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 109 matches

Autol away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.74 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vianés attack 1.05 + Autol defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 1.90

Autol attack 0.50 + Vianés defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Vianés scores more
60%
level
22%
Autol scores more
18%

Vianés at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Vianés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Vianés 1–1 Autol

Vianés and Autol drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Viana in Viana.