Vianense 0–2 Vitoria Setubal: Result & Stats

Vianense

0 – 2

Vitoria Setubal

9/25/2021

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Dr. José de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vianense16%

×Draw20%

Vitoria Setubal64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VianenseExpected goals in this matchVitoria Setubal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

2.07

Vianense

0.93

Vitoria Setubal

2.07

Vitoria Setubal creates 123% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

0.86

creates per match

2.57

1.57

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Vianense

0.86

Vitoria Setubal

2.57

allows per match

Vianense

1.57

Vitoria Setubal

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vianense+0.00on par

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianense ↓

Vitoria Setubal →

0–05%

0–110%

0–211%

0–37%

0–44%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Vianense or draw

36%

Vianense or Vitoria Setubal

80%

Draw or Vitoria Setubal

84%

Winning margin

Vianense wins by 2+

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Vianense 1+ goals

61%

Vianense 2+ goals

24%

Vianense 3+ goals

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

87%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

61%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Vianense (draw refunded)

20%

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vianense at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vianense attack 0.86 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Vitoria Setubal attack 2.57 + Vianense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Vianense scores more

16%

level

20%

Vitoria Setubal scores more

64%

Vitoria Setubal at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff