Vianense 1–3 Portimonense: Result & Stats

Vianense

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Portimonense

9/21/2024

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Dr. José de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vianense24%

×Draw24%

Portimonense52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VianenseExpected goals in this matchPortimonense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.66

Vianense

1.05

Portimonense

1.66

Portimonense creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

0.86

creates per match

1.75

1.57

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Vianense

0.86

Portimonense

1.75

allows per match

Vianense

1.57

Portimonense

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vianense+0.00on par

Portimonense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianense ↓

Portimonense →

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vianense or draw

48%

Vianense or Portimonense

76%

Draw or Portimonense

76%

Winning margin

Vianense wins by 2+

Portimonense wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Vianense 1+ goals

65%

Vianense 2+ goals

28%

Vianense 3+ goals

Portimonense 1+ goals

81%

Portimonense 2+ goals

49%

Portimonense 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Vianense (draw refunded)

32%

Portimonense (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vianense at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Portimonense away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vianense attack 0.86 + Portimonense defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Portimonense attack 1.75 + Vianense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vianense scores more

24%

level

24%

Portimonense scores more

52%

Portimonense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Portimonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff