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Vianense vs GIL Vicente — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vianense
Vianense
FT
0 – 1
GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente
9/9/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Dr. José de Matos (Viana do Castelo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vianense16%
×Draw24%
GIL Vicente60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vianense
0.74
GIL Vicente
1.67

GIL Vicente creates 126% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vianense
0.86
GIL Vicente
1.77

allows per match

Vianense
1.57
GIL Vicente
0.62

finishing

Vianense+0.00on par
GIL Vicente+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianense ↓

GIL Vicente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vianense or draw
40%
Vianense or GIL Vicente
76%
Draw or GIL Vicente
84%

Winning margin

Vianense wins by 2+
5%
GIL Vicente wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Vianense 1+ goals
52%
Vianense 2+ goals
17%
Vianense 3+ goals
4%
GIL Vicente 1+ goals
81%
GIL Vicente 2+ goals
50%
GIL Vicente 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Vianense (draw refunded)
22%
GIL Vicente (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vianense at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vianense attack 0.86 + GIL Vicente defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.74

GIL Vicente attack 1.77 + Vianense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Vianense scores more
16%
level
24%
GIL Vicente scores more
60%

GIL Vicente at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "GIL Vicente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vianense vs GIL Vicente

GIL Vicente beat Vianense 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. José de Matos (Viana do Castelo).