Vianense 1–2 Beira-Mar: Result & Stats

Vianense

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Beira-Mar

10/16/2022

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstadio Municipal Manuela Machado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vianense19%

×Draw21%

Beira-Mar60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VianenseExpected goals in this matchBeira-Mar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

2.04

Vianense

1.05

Beira-Mar

2.04

Beira-Mar creates 94% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

0.86

creates per match

2.50

1.57

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Vianense

0.86

Beira-Mar

2.50

allows per match

Vianense

1.57

Beira-Mar

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vianense+0.00on par

Beira-Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianense ↓

Beira-Mar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Vianense or draw

40%

Vianense or Beira-Mar

79%

Draw or Beira-Mar

81%

Winning margin

Vianense wins by 2+

7%

Beira-Mar wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Vianense 1+ goals

65%

Vianense 2+ goals

28%

Vianense 3+ goals

9%

Beira-Mar 1+ goals

87%

Beira-Mar 2+ goals

60%

Beira-Mar 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Vianense (draw refunded)

24%

Beira-Mar (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vianense at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Beira-Mar away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vianense attack 0.86 + Beira-Mar defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Beira-Mar attack 2.50 + Vianense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Vianense scores more

19%

level

21%

Beira-Mar scores more

60%

Beira-Mar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Beira-Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff