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Vianense vs Anadia — Liga 3 2021

Vianense
Vianense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Anadia
Anadia
5/4/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 10Estádio Dr. José de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vianense33%
×Draw30%
Anadia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vianense
1.01
Anadia
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 56 away

creates per match

Vianense
0.57
Anadia
1.02

allows per match

Vianense
1.14
Anadia
1.45

finishing

Vianense+0.00on par
Anadia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vianense ↓

Anadia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vianense or draw
63%
Vianense or Anadia
70%
Draw or Anadia
67%

Winning margin

Vianense wins by 2+
13%
Anadia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vianense 1+ goals
64%
Vianense 2+ goals
27%
Vianense 3+ goals
8%
Anadia 1+ goals
66%
Anadia 2+ goals
29%
Anadia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vianense (draw refunded)
47%
Anadia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vianense at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Anadia away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vianense attack 0.57 + Anadia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.01

Anadia attack 1.02 + Vianense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vianense scores more
33%
level
30%
Anadia scores more
37%

Anadia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Anadia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vianense vs Anadia

Anadia beat Vianense 1-0 in Liga 3 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. José de Matos in Viana do Castelo.