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VGTU Vilkai vs Venta — Cup 2020

VGTU Vilkai
VGTU Vilkai
FT
6 – 1
Venta
Venta
4/13/2025CupCup · 1st RoundŠirvintų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

VGTU Vilkai45%
×Draw18%
Venta37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VGTU Vilkai
2.92
Venta
2.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

VGTU Vilkai
1.17
Venta
1.67

allows per match

VGTU Vilkai
3.67
Venta
4.67

finishing

VGTU Vilkai+0.00on par
Venta+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VGTU Vilkai ↓

Venta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

VGTU Vilkai or draw
63%
VGTU Vilkai or Venta
82%
Draw or Venta
55%

Winning margin

VGTU Vilkai wins by 2+
28%
Venta wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

VGTU Vilkai 1+ goals
94%
VGTU Vilkai 2+ goals
78%
VGTU Vilkai 3+ goals
55%
Venta 1+ goals
93%
Venta 2+ goals
74%
Venta 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

VGTU Vilkai (draw refunded)
55%
Venta (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
85%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VGTU Vilkai at home — creates 1.17, concedes 3.67 · 6 matches

Venta away — creates 1.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VGTU Vilkai attack 1.17 + Venta defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 2.92

Venta attack 1.67 + VGTU Vilkai defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VGTU Vilkai scores more
45%
level
18%
Venta scores more
37%

VGTU Vilkai at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "VGTU Vilkai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VGTU Vilkai vs Venta

VGTU Vilkai beat Venta 6-1 in Cup on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Širvintų stadionas in Širvintos.