VGTU Vilkai 1–2 FKS Ukmergė: Result & Stats | Cup

VGTU Vilkai

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FKS Ukmergė

5/6/2024

Cup · Round of 32Širvintų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

VGTU Vilkai12%

×Draw13%

FKS Ukmergė75%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VGTU VilkaiExpected goals in this matchFKS Ukmergė

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

3.83

VGTU Vilkai

1.58

FKS Ukmergė

3.83

FKS Ukmergė creates 142% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.17

creates per match

4.00

3.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

VGTU Vilkai

1.17

FKS Ukmergė

4.00

allows per match

VGTU Vilkai

3.67

FKS Ukmergė

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VGTU Vilkai+0.00on par

FKS Ukmergė+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VGTU Vilkai ↓

FKS Ukmergė →

0–00%

0–12%

0–24%

0–35%

0–44%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–37%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–25%

2–36%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

VGTU Vilkai or draw

25%

VGTU Vilkai or FKS Ukmergė

87%

Draw or FKS Ukmergė

88%

Winning margin

VGTU Vilkai wins by 2+

FKS Ukmergė wins by 2+

58%

Team goals

VGTU Vilkai 1+ goals

79%

VGTU Vilkai 2+ goals

47%

VGTU Vilkai 3+ goals

21%

FKS Ukmergė 1+ goals

98%

FKS Ukmergė 2+ goals

88%

FKS Ukmergė 3+ goals

71%

Draw no bet

VGTU Vilkai (draw refunded)

14%

FKS Ukmergė (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

VGTU Vilkai at home — creates 1.17, concedes 3.67 · 6 matches

FKS Ukmergė away — creates 4.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

VGTU Vilkai attack 1.17 + FKS Ukmergė defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

FKS Ukmergė attack 4.00 + VGTU Vilkai defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

VGTU Vilkai scores more

12%

level

13%

FKS Ukmergė scores more

75%

FKS Ukmergė at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "FKS Ukmergė will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff