VGTU Vilkai 0–7 BFA: Result & Stats | Cup

VGTU Vilkai

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 2

BFA

4/10/2026

Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

VGTU Vilkai9%

×Draw11%

BFA80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VGTU VilkaiExpected goals in this matchBFA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

3.75

VGTU Vilkai

1.25

BFA

3.75

BFA creates 200% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.17

creates per match

3.83

3.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

VGTU Vilkai

1.17

BFA

3.83

allows per match

VGTU Vilkai

3.67

BFA

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VGTU Vilkai+0.00on par

BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VGTU Vilkai ↓

BFA →

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–36%

0–46%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–48%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

VGTU Vilkai or draw

20%

VGTU Vilkai or BFA

89%

Draw or BFA

91%

Winning margin

VGTU Vilkai wins by 2+

BFA wins by 2+

63%

Team goals

VGTU Vilkai 1+ goals

71%

VGTU Vilkai 2+ goals

36%

VGTU Vilkai 3+ goals

13%

BFA 1+ goals

97%

BFA 2+ goals

88%

BFA 3+ goals

70%

Draw no bet

VGTU Vilkai (draw refunded)

10%

BFA (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

VGTU Vilkai at home — creates 1.17, concedes 3.67 · 6 matches

BFA away — creates 3.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

VGTU Vilkai attack 1.17 + BFA defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

BFA attack 3.83 + VGTU Vilkai defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

VGTU Vilkai scores more

level

11%

BFA scores more

80%

BFA at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "BFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff