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VG-62 vs PIF — Suomen Cup 2018

VG-62
VG-62
FT
3 – 2
PIF
PIF
3/22/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundNaantali KHT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

VG-6218%
×Draw16%
PIF66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VG-62
1.52
PIF
2.95

PIF creates 94% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

VG-62
2.20
PIF
3.50

allows per match

VG-62
2.40
PIF
0.83

finishing

VG-62+0.00on par
PIF+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VG-62 ↓

PIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

VG-62 or draw
34%
VG-62 or PIF
84%
Draw or PIF
82%

Winning margin

VG-62 wins by 2+
8%
PIF wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

VG-62 1+ goals
78%
VG-62 2+ goals
45%
VG-62 3+ goals
20%
PIF 1+ goals
95%
PIF 2+ goals
79%
PIF 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

VG-62 (draw refunded)
21%
PIF (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VG-62 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

PIF away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VG-62 attack 2.20 + PIF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

PIF attack 3.50 + VG-62 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

VG-62 scores more
18%
level
16%
PIF scores more
66%

PIF at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "PIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VG-62 vs PIF

VG-62 beat PIF 3-2 in Suomen Cup on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Naantali KHT in Naantali.