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VG-62 vs FC jazz — Suomen Cup 2018

VG-62
VG-62
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FC jazz
FC jazz
4/17/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundNaantali KHT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

VG-6218%
×Draw18%
FC jazz64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VG-62
1.27
FC jazz
2.54

FC jazz creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

VG-62
2.20
FC jazz
2.67

allows per match

VG-62
2.40
FC jazz
0.33

finishing

VG-62+0.00on par
FC jazz+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VG-62 ↓

FC jazz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

VG-62 or draw
36%
VG-62 or FC jazz
82%
Draw or FC jazz
82%

Winning margin

VG-62 wins by 2+
7%
FC jazz wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

VG-62 1+ goals
72%
VG-62 2+ goals
36%
VG-62 3+ goals
14%
FC jazz 1+ goals
92%
FC jazz 2+ goals
72%
FC jazz 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

VG-62 (draw refunded)
22%
FC jazz (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VG-62 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

FC jazz away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VG-62 attack 2.20 + FC jazz defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

FC jazz attack 2.67 + VG-62 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

VG-62 scores more
18%
level
18%
FC jazz scores more
64%

FC jazz at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC jazz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VG-62 vs FC jazz

FC jazz beat VG-62 3-1 in Suomen Cup on April 17, 2024.

The match was played at Naantali KHT in Naantali.