VfR Mannheim 4–0 Offenburger FV: Result & Stats

VfR Mannheim

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Offenburger FV

5/18/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 33Rhein-Neckar-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

VfR Mannheim70%

×Draw17%

Offenburger FV13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfR MannheimExpected goals in this matchOffenburger FV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.99

VfR Mannheim

2.50

Offenburger FV

0.99

VfR Mannheim creates 153% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.96

creates per match

0.94

1.04

allows per match

3.03

creates per match

VfR Mannheim

1.96

Offenburger FV

0.94

allows per match

VfR Mannheim

1.04

Offenburger FV

3.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfR Mannheim+0.00on par

Offenburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfR Mannheim ↓

Offenburger FV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

VfR Mannheim or draw

87%

VfR Mannheim or Offenburger FV

83%

Draw or Offenburger FV

30%

Winning margin

VfR Mannheim wins by 2+

48%

Offenburger FV wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

VfR Mannheim 1+ goals

92%

VfR Mannheim 2+ goals

71%

VfR Mannheim 3+ goals

45%

Offenburger FV 1+ goals

63%

Offenburger FV 2+ goals

26%

Offenburger FV 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)

84%

Offenburger FV (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfR Mannheim at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Offenburger FV away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfR Mannheim attack 1.96 + Offenburger FV defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.50

Offenburger FV attack 0.94 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

VfR Mannheim scores more

70%

level

17%

Offenburger FV scores more

13%

VfR Mannheim at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "VfR Mannheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff