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VfR Mannheim vs Essingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

VfR Mannheim
VfR Mannheim
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Essingen
Essingen
5/31/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 34Rhein-Neckar-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

VfR Mannheim50%
×Draw24%
Essingen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfR Mannheim
1.75
Essingen
1.20

VfR Mannheim creates 46% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

VfR Mannheim
1.96
Essingen
1.35

allows per match

VfR Mannheim
1.04
Essingen
1.55

finishing

VfR Mannheim+0.00on par
Essingen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfR Mannheim ↓

Essingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

VfR Mannheim or draw
74%
VfR Mannheim or Essingen
76%
Draw or Essingen
50%

Winning margin

VfR Mannheim wins by 2+
27%
Essingen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

VfR Mannheim 1+ goals
83%
VfR Mannheim 2+ goals
52%
VfR Mannheim 3+ goals
25%
Essingen 1+ goals
70%
Essingen 2+ goals
34%
Essingen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)
66%
Essingen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfR Mannheim at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Essingen away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfR Mannheim attack 1.96 + Essingen defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.75

Essingen attack 1.35 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

VfR Mannheim scores more
50%
level
24%
Essingen scores more
26%

VfR Mannheim at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "VfR Mannheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: VfR Mannheim 2–2 Essingen

VfR Mannheim and Essingen drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Rhein-Neckar-Stadion in Mannheim.