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VfR Aalen vs Würzburger Kickers — Friendlies Clubs 2026

VfR Aalen
VfR Aalen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Würzburger Kickers
Würzburger Kickers
7/8/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

VfR Aalen57%
×Draw18%
Würzburger Kickers25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfR Aalen
2.69
Würzburger Kickers
1.75

VfR Aalen creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

VfR Aalen
3.00
Würzburger Kickers
2.25

allows per match

VfR Aalen
1.25
Würzburger Kickers
2.38

finishing

VfR Aalen+0.00on par
Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfR Aalen ↓

Würzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

VfR Aalen or draw
75%
VfR Aalen or Würzburger Kickers
82%
Draw or Würzburger Kickers
43%

Winning margin

VfR Aalen wins by 2+
37%
Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

VfR Aalen 1+ goals
93%
VfR Aalen 2+ goals
74%
VfR Aalen 3+ goals
49%
Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals
83%
Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals
52%
Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

VfR Aalen (draw refunded)
70%
Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfR Aalen at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Würzburger Kickers away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfR Aalen attack 3.00 + Würzburger Kickers defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.69

Würzburger Kickers attack 2.25 + VfR Aalen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

VfR Aalen scores more
57%
level
18%
Würzburger Kickers scores more
25%

VfR Aalen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "VfR Aalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

VfR
Würzburger
P. Kosturkov
Manager: P. Kosturkov
Markus Zschiesche
Manager: Markus Zschiesche

Match Recap: VfR Aalen vs Würzburger Kickers

VfR Aalen beat Würzburger Kickers 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 8, 2026.