VfR Aalen 3–0 Normannia Gmünd: Result & Stats

VfR Aalen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Normannia Gmünd

8/21/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 3CENTUS ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

VfR Aalen61%

×Draw21%

Normannia Gmünd18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfR AalenExpected goals in this matchNormannia Gmünd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.01

VfR Aalen

2.02

Normannia Gmünd

1.01

VfR Aalen creates 100% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

2.32

creates per match

1.33

0.68

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

VfR Aalen

2.32

Normannia Gmünd

1.33

allows per match

VfR Aalen

0.68

Normannia Gmünd

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfR Aalen+0.00on par

Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfR Aalen ↓

Normannia Gmünd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

VfR Aalen or draw

82%

VfR Aalen or Normannia Gmünd

79%

Draw or Normannia Gmünd

39%

Winning margin

VfR Aalen wins by 2+

37%

Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

VfR Aalen 1+ goals

87%

VfR Aalen 2+ goals

60%

VfR Aalen 3+ goals

33%

Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals

64%

Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals

27%

Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

VfR Aalen (draw refunded)

77%

Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfR Aalen at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Normannia Gmünd away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfR Aalen attack 2.32 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.02

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.33 + VfR Aalen defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

VfR Aalen scores more

61%

level

21%

Normannia Gmünd scores more

18%

VfR Aalen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "VfR Aalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff