VfR Aalen 6–0 Fellbach: Result & Stats

VfR Aalen

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Fellbach

M. Schaupp 76'

B. Kindsvater 52' (pen)

S. Wachter 38'

A. Odabas 37', 16'

S. Maksimovic 29' (pen)

4/12/2025

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 27CENTUS ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

VfR Aalen71%

×Draw17%

Fellbach12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfR AalenExpected goals in this matchFellbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

0.96

VfR Aalen

2.54

Fellbach

0.96

VfR Aalen creates 165% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

2.32

creates per match

1.24

0.68

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

VfR Aalen

2.32

Fellbach

1.24

allows per match

VfR Aalen

0.68

Fellbach

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfR Aalen+0.00on par

Fellbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfR Aalen ↓

Fellbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

VfR Aalen or draw

88%

VfR Aalen or Fellbach

83%

Draw or Fellbach

29%

Winning margin

VfR Aalen wins by 2+

49%

Fellbach wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

VfR Aalen 1+ goals

92%

VfR Aalen 2+ goals

72%

VfR Aalen 3+ goals

46%

Fellbach 1+ goals

62%

Fellbach 2+ goals

25%

Fellbach 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

VfR Aalen (draw refunded)

85%

Fellbach (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfR Aalen at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Fellbach away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfR Aalen attack 2.32 + Fellbach defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.54

Fellbach attack 1.24 + VfR Aalen defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

VfR Aalen scores more

71%

level

17%

Fellbach scores more

12%

VfR Aalen at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "VfR Aalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

A. Odabas

29'

S. MaksimovicPenalty

37'

A. Odabas

38'

S. Wachter

52'

B. KindsvaterPenalty

76'

M. Schaupp

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff