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VfL Wolfsburg W vs Paris Saint Germain W — UEFA Champions League Women 2026

VfL Wolfsburg W
VfL Wolfsburg W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
A. Popp 90'
J. Minge 90' (pen)
E. Peddemors 42'
J. Groenen 7' (OG)
10/8/2025UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · League Stage - 1Volkswagen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg W48%
×Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Wolfsburg W
1.92
Paris Saint Germain W
1.48

VfL Wolfsburg W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 27 away

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg W
2.55
Paris Saint Germain W
1.93

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg W
1.03
Paris Saint Germain W
1.30

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg W or draw
70%
VfL Wolfsburg W or Paris Saint Germain W
78%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
52%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg W wins by 2+
27%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg W 1+ goals
85%
VfL Wolfsburg W 2+ goals
57%
VfL Wolfsburg W 3+ goals
30%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
77%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
43%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg W (draw refunded)
62%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg W at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg W attack 2.55 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.92

Paris Saint Germain W attack 1.93 + VfL Wolfsburg W defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

VfL Wolfsburg W scores more
48%
level
22%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
30%

VfL Wolfsburg W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
J. LevelsVfL Wolfsburg WVfL Wolfsburg W · D
8.0

Match Events

7'
J. GroenenOwn goal
42'
E. Peddemors↳ S. Huth
44'
Jackie Groenen
46'
T. Elimbi← R. Leuchter
63'
K. Bussy← C. Zicai
63'
S. Linder← M. Wedemeyer
68'
Svenja Huth
79'
F. Jourde← J. Echegini
79'
T. Diakite← J. Groenen
83'
J. Kielland← L. Beerensteyn
85'
L. Morissaint← M. Kanjinga
90+3'
Judit PujolsPenalty confirmed
90+1'
T. Bjelde← S. Huth
90+1'
J. Pujols← E. Peddemors
90+1'
O. Graziani← R. Ajibade
90'
A. Popp
90'
J. MingePenalty

Possession

59%VfL

Shots

12VfL

Pass accuracy

51%VfL

Statistics

VfLParis
Overview
59%Possession41%
12Total Shots16
5Corners2
9Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots16
5On Target6
6Off Target7
1Blocked3
9Inside Box8
3Outside Box8
Passing
59%Possession41%
449Total Passes310
358Accurate Passes237
80%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

UEFA Champions League Women: VfL Wolfsburg W 4–0 Paris Saint Germain W

VfL Wolfsburg W beat Paris Saint Germain W 4-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on October 8, 2025.

Goals: J. Groenen (7' o.g.), E. Peddemors (42'), A. Popp (90'), J. Minge (90' pen).

VfL Wolfsburg W controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at Volkswagen Arena in Wolfsburg.