VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 Red Bull Salzburg: Result & Stats

VfL Wolfsburg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Red Bull Salzburg

L. Nmecha 60'

R. Baku 3'

M. Wöber 30'

11/2/2021

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 4VOLKSWAGEN ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg38%

×Draw23%

Red Bull Salzburg39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL WolfsburgExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.63

VfL Wolfsburg

1.61

Red Bull Salzburg

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

1.33

creates per match

1.58

1.67

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.33

Red Bull Salzburg

1.58

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.67

Red Bull Salzburg

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg or draw

61%

VfL Wolfsburg or Red Bull Salzburg

77%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

62%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+

19%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals

80%

VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals

48%

VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals

22%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

80%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

48%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)

49%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.33 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.61

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.58 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

VfL Wolfsburg scores more

38%

level

23%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

39%

Red Bull Salzburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

M. Wöber

Red Bull Salzburg · D

7.9

Match Events

3'

28'

30'

60'

63'

D. Lukébakio← W. Weghorst

63'

B. Šeško← K. Adeyemi

68'

John Brooks

73'

J. Roussillon← Y. Gerhardt

73'

R. Steffen← Paulo Otávio

77'

77'

82'

83'

87'

89'

M. Kjærgaard← M. Camara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfLRed

Overview

42%Possession58%

8Total Shots12

1Corners4

14Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots12

4On Target6

2Off Target5

2Blocked1

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

409Total Passes550

296Accurate Passes437

72%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4