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VfL Wolfsburg vs Lyon — Friendlies Clubs 2026

VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Preview
12:00
Lyon
Lyon
7/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
53%
VfL Wolfsburg
model favours
53%21%26%

Even after scoring first, VfL Wolfsburg win only 37%

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg53%
×Draw21%
Lyon26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Wolfsburg
2.13
Lyon
1.46

VfL Wolfsburg creates 46% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg
2.25
Lyon
1.67

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg
1.25
Lyon
2.00

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg+0.00on par
Lyon+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg ↓

Lyon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg or draw
74%
VfL Wolfsburg or Lyon
79%
Draw or Lyon
47%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+
31%
Lyon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals
88%
VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals
63%
VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals
35%
Lyon 1+ goals
77%
Lyon 2+ goals
43%
Lyon 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)
67%
Lyon (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Lyon away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg attack 2.25 + Lyon defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Lyon attack 1.67 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

VfL Wolfsburg scores more
53%
level
21%
Lyon scores more
26%

VfL Wolfsburg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of VfL Wolfsburg’s matches
  • When Lyon score first, they win 82% of the time
  • 22% of VfL Wolfsburg’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • VfL Wolfsburg and Lyon have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Wolfsburg
WWDDW
Lyon
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: VfL Wolfsburg host Lyon

July 24, 2026: VfL Wolfsburg take on Lyon in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.