Lyon 4–1 VfL Wolfsburg: Result & Stats

Lyon

4 – 1

VfL Wolfsburg

7/17/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Groupama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lyon51%

×Draw19%

VfL Wolfsburg30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyonExpected goals in this matchVfL Wolfsburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

2.02

Lyon

2.62

VfL Wolfsburg

2.02

Lyon creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

3.13

creates per match

2.67

1.38

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Lyon

3.13

VfL Wolfsburg

2.67

allows per match

Lyon

1.38

VfL Wolfsburg

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lyon+0.00on par

VfL Wolfsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon ↓

VfL Wolfsburg →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Lyon or draw

70%

Lyon or VfL Wolfsburg

81%

Draw or VfL Wolfsburg

49%

Winning margin

Lyon wins by 2+

32%

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lyon 1+ goals

93%

Lyon 2+ goals

73%

Lyon 3+ goals

48%

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals

87%

VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals

60%

VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Lyon (draw refunded)

63%

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lyon at home — creates 3.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

VfL Wolfsburg away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lyon attack 3.13 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.62

VfL Wolfsburg attack 2.67 + Lyon defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lyon scores more

51%

level

19%

VfL Wolfsburg scores more

30%

Lyon at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lyon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff