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VfL Vichttal vs Wesseling-Urfeld — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Wesseling-Urfeld
Wesseling-Urfeld
5/22/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 31Sportplatz Dörenberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

VfL Vichttal76%
×Draw13%
Wesseling-Urfeld11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Vichttal
3.43
Wesseling-Urfeld
1.32

VfL Vichttal creates 160% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 19 away

creates per match

VfL Vichttal
2.81
Wesseling-Urfeld
1.00

allows per match

VfL Vichttal
1.65
Wesseling-Urfeld
4.05

finishing

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par
Wesseling-Urfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Vichttal ↓

Wesseling-Urfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

VfL Vichttal or draw
89%
VfL Vichttal or Wesseling-Urfeld
87%
Draw or Wesseling-Urfeld
24%

Winning margin

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
57%
Wesseling-Urfeld wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
97%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
85%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
64%
Wesseling-Urfeld 1+ goals
73%
Wesseling-Urfeld 2+ goals
38%
Wesseling-Urfeld 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
87%
Wesseling-Urfeld (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Vichttal at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Wesseling-Urfeld away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Vichttal attack 2.81 + Wesseling-Urfeld defence 4.05 → ÷2 → 3.43

Wesseling-Urfeld attack 1.00 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

VfL Vichttal scores more
76%
level
13%
Wesseling-Urfeld scores more
11%

VfL Vichttal at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: VfL Vichttal 5–2 Wesseling-Urfeld

VfL Vichttal beat Wesseling-Urfeld 5-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Dörenberg in Rhineland.