VfL Vichttal 0–1 Siegburger SV: Result & Stats

VfL Vichttal

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Siegburger SV

12/1/2024

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 14Sportplatz Dörenberg - EWV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

VfL Vichttal48%

×Draw21%

Siegburger SV31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL VichttalExpected goals in this matchSiegburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.75

VfL Vichttal

2.19

Siegburger SV

1.75

VfL Vichttal creates 25% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 80 away

2.81

creates per match

1.86

1.65

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

VfL Vichttal

2.81

Siegburger SV

1.86

allows per match

VfL Vichttal

1.65

Siegburger SV

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par

Siegburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Vichttal ↓

Siegburger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

VfL Vichttal or draw

69%

VfL Vichttal or Siegburger SV

79%

Draw or Siegburger SV

52%

Winning margin

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+

28%

Siegburger SV wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals

89%

VfL Vichttal 2+ goals

64%

VfL Vichttal 3+ goals

37%

Siegburger SV 1+ goals

83%

Siegburger SV 2+ goals

52%

Siegburger SV 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)

60%

Siegburger SV (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Vichttal at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Siegburger SV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Vichttal attack 2.81 + Siegburger SV defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.19

Siegburger SV attack 1.86 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

VfL Vichttal scores more

48%

level

21%

Siegburger SV scores more

31%

VfL Vichttal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff