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VfL Vichttal vs Eilendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
CANC
18:30
Eilendorf
Eilendorf
11/5/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 7Sportplatz Dörenberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

VfL Vichttal64%
×Draw18%
Eilendorf18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Vichttal
2.50
Eilendorf
1.27

VfL Vichttal creates 97% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 20 away

creates per match

VfL Vichttal
2.81
Eilendorf
0.90

allows per match

VfL Vichttal
1.65
Eilendorf
2.20

finishing

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par
Eilendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Vichttal ↓

Eilendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

VfL Vichttal or draw
82%
VfL Vichttal or Eilendorf
82%
Draw or Eilendorf
36%

Winning margin

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
42%
Eilendorf wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
92%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
71%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
45%
Eilendorf 1+ goals
72%
Eilendorf 2+ goals
36%
Eilendorf 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
78%
Eilendorf (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Vichttal at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Eilendorf away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Vichttal attack 2.81 + Eilendorf defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.50

Eilendorf attack 0.90 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

VfL Vichttal scores more
64%
level
18%
Eilendorf scores more
18%

VfL Vichttal at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: VfL Vichttal host Eilendorf

November 5, 2020: VfL Vichttal take on Eilendorf in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

VfL Vichttal host Eilendorf at Sportplatz Dörenberg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.