Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

VfL Vichttal vs Bonner SC — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bonner SC
Bonner SC
8/25/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 1Sportplatz Dörenberg - EWV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

VfL Vichttal39%
×Draw21%
Bonner SC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Vichttal
1.95
Bonner SC
1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 44 away

creates per match

VfL Vichttal
2.81
Bonner SC
2.30

allows per match

VfL Vichttal
1.65
Bonner SC
1.09

finishing

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par
Bonner SC+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Vichttal ↓

Bonner SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

VfL Vichttal or draw
60%
VfL Vichttal or Bonner SC
79%
Draw or Bonner SC
61%

Winning margin

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
21%
Bonner SC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
86%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
58%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
31%
Bonner SC 1+ goals
86%
Bonner SC 2+ goals
58%
Bonner SC 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
50%
Bonner SC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Vichttal at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Bonner SC away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Vichttal attack 2.81 + Bonner SC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.95

Bonner SC attack 2.30 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

VfL Vichttal scores more
39%
level
21%
Bonner SC scores more
40%

Bonner SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Vichttal vs Bonner SC

Bonner SC beat VfL Vichttal 3-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Dörenberg - EWV Arena in Rhineland.