VfL Vichttal 1–3 Bergisch Gladbach: Result & Stats

VfL Vichttal

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Bergisch Gladbach

3/16/2025

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 17Sportplatz Dörenberg - EWV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

VfL Vichttal43%

×Draw21%

Bergisch Gladbach35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL VichttalExpected goals in this matchBergisch Gladbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.78

VfL Vichttal

1.98

Bergisch Gladbach

1.78

VfL Vichttal creates 11% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 76 away

2.81

creates per match

1.92

1.65

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

VfL Vichttal

2.81

Bergisch Gladbach

1.92

allows per match

VfL Vichttal

1.65

Bergisch Gladbach

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Vichttal ↓

Bergisch Gladbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

VfL Vichttal or draw

65%

VfL Vichttal or Bergisch Gladbach

79%

Draw or Bergisch Gladbach

57%

Winning margin

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+

24%

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals

86%

VfL Vichttal 2+ goals

59%

VfL Vichttal 3+ goals

31%

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals

83%

Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals

53%

Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)

55%

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Vichttal at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Bergisch Gladbach away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.14 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Vichttal attack 2.81 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.98

Bergisch Gladbach attack 1.92 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

VfL Vichttal scores more

43%

level

21%

Bergisch Gladbach scores more

35%

VfL Vichttal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff