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VfL Vichttal vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

VfL Vichttal
VfL Vichttal
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
9/17/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 6Sportplatz Dörenberg - EWV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

VfL Vichttal56%
×Draw19%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Vichttal
2.41
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.57

VfL Vichttal creates 54% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 44 away

creates per match

VfL Vichttal
2.81
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.50

allows per match

VfL Vichttal
1.65
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2.00

finishing

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Vichttal ↓

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

VfL Vichttal or draw
75%
VfL Vichttal or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
81%
Draw or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
44%

Winning margin

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+
35%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals
91%
VfL Vichttal 2+ goals
69%
VfL Vichttal 3+ goals
43%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
79%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
46%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)
69%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Vichttal at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Vichttal attack 2.81 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.41

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.50 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

VfL Vichttal scores more
56%
level
19%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
25%

VfL Vichttal at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Vichttal vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

VfL Vichttal and BCV Glesch / Paffendorf drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Dörenberg - EWV Arena in Rhineland.