VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Hansa Rostock: Result & Stats

VfL Osnabrück

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hansa Rostock

S. Haugen 50'

4/9/2025

League #80 · Round 32Bremer Brücke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

VfL Osnabrück35%

×Draw29%

Hansa Rostock36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL OsnabrückExpected goals in this matchHansa Rostock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.15

VfL Osnabrück

1.13

Hansa Rostock

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 44 away

1.15

creates per match

1.11

1.18

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

VfL Osnabrück

1.15

Hansa Rostock

1.11

allows per match

VfL Osnabrück

1.18

Hansa Rostock

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Osnabrück+0.00on par

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Osnabrück ↓

Hansa Rostock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

VfL Osnabrück or draw

64%

VfL Osnabrück or Hansa Rostock

71%

Draw or Hansa Rostock

65%

Winning margin

VfL Osnabrück wins by 2+

14%

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

VfL Osnabrück 1+ goals

68%

VfL Osnabrück 2+ goals

31%

VfL Osnabrück 3+ goals

11%

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

68%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

32%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

VfL Osnabrück (draw refunded)

49%

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Osnabrück at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Osnabrück attack 1.15 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Hansa Rostock attack 1.11 + VfL Osnabrück defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

VfL Osnabrück scores more

35%

level

29%

Hansa Rostock scores more

36%

Hansa Rostock at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Ahmet Gürleyen

46'

N. Kölle← I. Badjie

46'

T. Krohn← C. Harenbrock

50'

55'

56'

63'

64'

B. Simakala← N. Niehoff

70'

C. Kinsombi← S. Haugen

70'

73'

74'

84'

89'

90+6'

90+3'

VfL3-5-2

Hansa3-4-3

8

▼

Harenbroc

18

⚽

▼

Haugen

14

▼

Lebeau

29

Ruschke

5

Schuster

42

A

▼

19

22

15

23

1

21

25

24

4

10

▼

Manu

26

▼

Gnaase

6

Amoako

48

Kayo

29

▼

Niehoff

37

▼

Badjie

18

▼

Kehl

Manager: M. Antwerpen

46'▲N. Kölle←▼I. Badjie

55'▲M. Müller←▼D. Gnaase

64'▲B. Simakala←▼N. Niehoff

73'▲B. Henning←▼L. Kehl

74'▲L. Semić←▼B. Manu

VfL Osnabrück substitutes

44Kölle19Müller7Simakala27Henning17Semić36Böggemann39Karademir8Tesche33Beermann

Manager: D. Brinkmann

46'▲T. Krohn←▼C. Harenbrock

70'▲C. Kinsombi←▼S. Haugen

70'▲S. Suso←▼B. Dietze

84'▲D. Gebuhr←▼A. Lebeau

90+3'▲A. Jonjić←▼T. Krohn

Hansa Rostock substitutes

44Krohn27Kinsombi28Suso24Gebuhr11Jonjić36Bock30Hagemoser45Stoldt46Labenz

Match Recap: VfL Osnabrück vs Hansa Rostock

Hansa Rostock beat VfL Osnabrück 1-0 in League #80 on April 9, 2025.

Goals: S. Haugen (50').

The match was played at Bremer Brücke in Osnabrück.

VfL Osnabrück vs Hansa Rostock — League #80 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: VfL Osnabrück vs Hansa Rostock