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VfL Osnabruck vs FC Schalke 04 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
5/7/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 32Millerntor-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

VfL Osnabruck32%
×Draw25%
FC Schalke 0443%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Osnabruck
1.31
FC Schalke 04
1.55

FC Schalke 04 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

creates per match

VfL Osnabruck
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.41

allows per match

VfL Osnabruck
1.69
FC Schalke 04
1.47

finishing

VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par
FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Osnabruck ↓

FC Schalke 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

VfL Osnabruck or draw
57%
VfL Osnabruck or FC Schalke 04
75%
Draw or FC Schalke 04
68%

Winning margin

VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+
14%
FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals
73%
VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals
38%
VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals
14%
FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
79%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
46%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)
43%
FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Osnabruck at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.15 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.41 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

VfL Osnabruck scores more
32%
level
25%
FC Schalke 04 scores more
43%

FC Schalke 04 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Osnabruck vs FC Schalke 04

FC Schalke 04 beat VfL Osnabruck 4-0 in 2. Bundesliga on May 7, 2024.

The match was played at Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg.