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VfL Osnabruck vs FC Kaiserslautern — 2. Bundesliga 2018

VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
FC Kaiserslautern
FC Kaiserslautern
10/1/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 8Bremer Brücke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

VfL Osnabruck37%
×Draw25%
FC Kaiserslautern38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Osnabruck
1.42
FC Kaiserslautern
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

creates per match

VfL Osnabruck
1.15
FC Kaiserslautern
1.23

allows per match

VfL Osnabruck
1.69
FC Kaiserslautern
1.68

finishing

VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par
FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Osnabruck ↓

FC Kaiserslautern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

VfL Osnabruck or draw
62%
VfL Osnabruck or FC Kaiserslautern
75%
Draw or FC Kaiserslautern
63%

Winning margin

VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+
17%
FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals
76%
VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals
41%
VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals
17%
FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
77%
FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
43%
FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)
49%
FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Osnabruck at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

FC Kaiserslautern away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.15 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.42

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.23 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

VfL Osnabruck scores more
37%
level
25%
FC Kaiserslautern scores more
38%

FC Kaiserslautern at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: VfL Osnabruck 2–2 FC Kaiserslautern

VfL Osnabruck and FC Kaiserslautern drew 2-2 in 2. Bundesliga on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Bremer Brücke in Osnabrück.