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VfL Halle vs Wismut Gera — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

VfL Halle
VfL Halle
FT
8 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Wismut Gera
Wismut Gera
5/10/2025Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 27HWG-Stadion am Zoo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

VfL Halle58%
×Draw19%
Wismut Gera23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Halle
2.46
Wismut Gera
1.49

VfL Halle creates 65% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 15 away

creates per match

VfL Halle
2.04
Wismut Gera
1.60

allows per match

VfL Halle
1.37
Wismut Gera
2.87

finishing

VfL Halle+0.00on par
Wismut Gera+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Halle ↓

Wismut Gera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

VfL Halle or draw
77%
VfL Halle or Wismut Gera
81%
Draw or Wismut Gera
42%

Winning margin

VfL Halle wins by 2+
37%
Wismut Gera wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

VfL Halle 1+ goals
91%
VfL Halle 2+ goals
70%
VfL Halle 3+ goals
44%
Wismut Gera 1+ goals
77%
Wismut Gera 2+ goals
44%
Wismut Gera 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

VfL Halle (draw refunded)
72%
Wismut Gera (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Halle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

Wismut Gera away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Halle attack 2.04 + Wismut Gera defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.46

Wismut Gera attack 1.60 + VfL Halle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

VfL Halle scores more
58%
level
19%
Wismut Gera scores more
23%

VfL Halle at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "VfL Halle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Halle vs Wismut Gera

VfL Halle beat Wismut Gera 8-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at HWG-Stadion am Zoo in Saale.