VfL Halle vs Wacker Nordhausen

VfL Halle

CANC

13:00

Wacker Nordhausen

3/14/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 23HWG-Stadion am Zoo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

VfL Halle58%

×Draw21%

Wacker Nordhausen21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL HalleExpected goals in this matchWacker Nordhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.20

VfL Halle

2.12

Wacker Nordhausen

1.20

VfL Halle creates 77% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 35 away

2.04

creates per match

1.03

1.37

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

VfL Halle

2.04

Wacker Nordhausen

1.03

allows per match

VfL Halle

1.37

Wacker Nordhausen

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Halle+0.00on par

Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Halle ↓

Wacker Nordhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

VfL Halle or draw

79%

VfL Halle or Wacker Nordhausen

79%

Draw or Wacker Nordhausen

42%

Winning margin

VfL Halle wins by 2+

36%

Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

VfL Halle 1+ goals

88%

VfL Halle 2+ goals

62%

VfL Halle 3+ goals

35%

Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals

70%

Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals

34%

Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

VfL Halle (draw refunded)

73%

Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Halle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

Wacker Nordhausen away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Halle attack 2.04 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.12

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.03 + VfL Halle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

VfL Halle scores more

58%

level

21%

Wacker Nordhausen scores more

21%

VfL Halle at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "VfL Halle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff