VfL Halle 2–3 SC Freital: Result & Stats

VfL Halle

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

SC Freital

5/19/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 28HWG-Stadion am Zoo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

VfL Halle43%

×Draw23%

SC Freital34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL HalleExpected goals in this matchSC Freital

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.54

VfL Halle

1.75

SC Freital

1.54

VfL Halle creates 14% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 62 away

2.04

creates per match

1.71

1.37

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

VfL Halle

2.04

SC Freital

1.71

allows per match

VfL Halle

1.37

SC Freital

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Halle+0.00on par

SC Freital+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Halle ↓

SC Freital →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

VfL Halle or draw

66%

VfL Halle or SC Freital

77%

Draw or SC Freital

57%

Winning margin

VfL Halle wins by 2+

23%

SC Freital wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

VfL Halle 1+ goals

83%

VfL Halle 2+ goals

52%

VfL Halle 3+ goals

25%

SC Freital 1+ goals

79%

SC Freital 2+ goals

45%

SC Freital 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

VfL Halle (draw refunded)

56%

SC Freital (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Halle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

SC Freital away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.45 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Halle attack 2.04 + SC Freital defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.75

SC Freital attack 1.71 + VfL Halle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

VfL Halle scores more

43%

level

23%

SC Freital scores more

34%

VfL Halle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "VfL Halle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff