VfL Halle 0–0 Motor Marienberg: Result & Stats

VfL Halle

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Motor Marienberg

4/14/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 23HWG-Stadion am Zoo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

VfL Halle73%

×Draw15%

Motor Marienberg12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL HalleExpected goals in this matchMotor Marienberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.82

1.05

VfL Halle

2.82

Motor Marienberg

1.05

VfL Halle creates 169% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 15 away

2.04

creates per match

0.73

1.37

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

VfL Halle

2.04

Motor Marienberg

0.73

allows per match

VfL Halle

1.37

Motor Marienberg

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Halle+0.00on par

Motor Marienberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Halle ↓

Motor Marienberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

VfL Halle or draw

88%

VfL Halle or Motor Marienberg

85%

Draw or Motor Marienberg

27%

Winning margin

VfL Halle wins by 2+

53%

Motor Marienberg wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

VfL Halle 1+ goals

94%

VfL Halle 2+ goals

77%

VfL Halle 3+ goals

52%

Motor Marienberg 1+ goals

65%

Motor Marienberg 2+ goals

28%

Motor Marienberg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

VfL Halle (draw refunded)

86%

Motor Marienberg (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Halle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

Motor Marienberg away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Halle attack 2.04 + Motor Marienberg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.82

Motor Marienberg attack 0.73 + VfL Halle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

VfL Halle scores more

73%

level

15%

Motor Marienberg scores more

12%

VfL Halle at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "VfL Halle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff