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VfL Halle vs Ludwigsfelde — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

VfL Halle
VfL Halle
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
12/15/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 16Kunstrasen Geschwister Scholl Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

VfL Halle56%
×Draw22%
Ludwigsfelde22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Halle
2.00
Ludwigsfelde
1.17

VfL Halle creates 71% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 50 away

creates per match

VfL Halle
2.04
Ludwigsfelde
0.96

allows per match

VfL Halle
1.37
Ludwigsfelde
1.96

finishing

VfL Halle+0.00on par
Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Halle ↓

Ludwigsfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

VfL Halle or draw
78%
VfL Halle or Ludwigsfelde
78%
Draw or Ludwigsfelde
44%

Winning margin

VfL Halle wins by 2+
33%
Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

VfL Halle 1+ goals
86%
VfL Halle 2+ goals
59%
VfL Halle 3+ goals
32%
Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
69%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
33%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

VfL Halle (draw refunded)
72%
Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Halle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Halle attack 2.04 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.96 + VfL Halle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

VfL Halle scores more
56%
level
22%
Ludwigsfelde scores more
22%

VfL Halle at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "VfL Halle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: VfL Halle 1–0 Ludwigsfelde

VfL Halle beat Ludwigsfelde 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasen Geschwister Scholl Strasse in Saale.